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Friday, September 30, 2022

[New post] Are there more hurricanes nowadays?

Site logo image Tony posted: " Hurricane Ian approaches Florida (NOAA image) Florida is counting the cost of Hurricane Ian (above). While we empathise with the people affected by this terrible tragedy, and wish them well, it's appropriate for a science blog to reflect on what's happ" Scientific Gems

Are there more hurricanes nowadays?

Tony

Sep 30


Hurricane Ian approaches Florida (NOAA image)

Florida is counting the cost of Hurricane Ian (above). While we empathise with the people affected by this terrible tragedy, and wish them well, it's appropriate for a science blog to reflect on what's happening. The paper "Trends in Global Tropical Cyclone Activity: 1990–2021" by Philip J. Klotzbach, Kimberly M. Wood, Carl J. Schreck III, Steven G. Bowen, Christina M. Patricola, and Michael M. Bell (Geophysical Research Letters, 14 March 2022) is a good guide.

Klotzbach et al. find that global hurricane counts have in fact decreased since 1990. We are not seeing more hurricanes. Restricting attention to Category 4–5 hurricanes (see below) shows no significant change. This overall decrease seems to be driven by more frequent La NiƱa years, which are associated with fewer hurricanes in the huge Pacific Ocean, and more in the smaller North Atlantic Ocean, giving a reduced total.

Global damage has increased significantly, however, due to having more people and more infrastructure in hurricane-prone coastal areas. It seems difficult to stop people from moving to Florida to live, so there is a clear need to make buildings and infrastructure more hurricane-proof. This document from the government of Queensland (Australia) offers some useful tips for home construction.


Figure 3c from Klotzbach et al. Category 4–5 hurricanes in six tropical cyclone basins during 1990–2021.

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